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Millet
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Posted: Tue 08 Jul, 2008 5:41 pm

A cubic mile of oil, is the energy standard used world wide when talking about energy. What's the BTU output of just only one cubic mile of oil, as compared to wind energy, solar energy, and nuclear electric energy . In order to equal a cubic mile of oil, you would have to have 91,250,000 solar panels with a 2.1 kilowatt system, running for 50 years. For Wind Turbines, you would need 32,850, 1.65-megawatt Wind Turbines cranking for 50 years at 100 percent capacity non stop. You would need 52, 1.1 Gig watt nuclear electric plants for 50 years. There is no substitute for even one cubic mile of oil at present technology. Using the relative comparison of the energy efficiency of oil, compared to these other energy alternatives, you can see that wind and solar will never be able to supply America's energy needs. - Millet
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Sylvain
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Posted: Tue 08 Jul, 2008 7:44 pm

Millet, How can you say: «A cubic mile of oil, is the energy standard used world wide». Most of people of the word never heard of mile... what about cubic mile!
Don't forget that the rest of the world use international system units.
So let's speak of a cubic km that is much less than a cubic mile.
A cubic kilometre is a VERY BIG volume. Why do you use it as a reference?
Do you know that the bodies of all human being on the earth would fit in a cubic km?
When you say «you can see that wind and solar will never be able to supply America's energy needs.»
-America is just a small part of the earth. What about the others?
-The question is not energy to fit to America's "need" but America (and the rest of the world" to fit to renewable energies.

I can see that my English is very poor... Sorry
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Millet
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Posted: Tue 08 Jul, 2008 9:01 pm

Sylvain, , I said America because the subject I posted about is American energy usage. I will let the French talk about France, the Germans talk about Germany, the Samoans talk about Samoa, the Eskimos talk about the North Pole, and the dead talk about the dead. A cubic mile is 26.2 billion barrels (42 gallons/bbl), which is about the amount of oil that the entire world uses per year. You can see the huge huge efficiency difference between oil and energy from renewable sources. Thank you for your suggestion, I'm sorry but I, and most people, certainly do not want to lower our standard of living down to a scale of only what energy that renewables could provide. Anyway, take care, and God Bless. - Millet
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Sylvain
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Posted: Wed 09 Jul, 2008 3:48 am

Yes, I understand well, but what I mean when I say America is just a little piece of the world is that
-Pollution is world wild. When USA burns the main part of the world's oil, the whole world is polluted, even the pigmees who never saw a litre of oil.
-If USA rise their way of living as a "standart", be sure that people of the rest of the earth will demand the same standart. I am mainly thinking of Indians and Chineses. Then you will not need one cubic mile per year but hundreds! What shall you do?

I unfortunately probably know the answer: make an other war somewhere to be sure to keep the oil... Crying or Very sad
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JoeReal
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Posted: Wed 09 Jul, 2008 6:21 am

A cubic mile of oil roughly will contain 1.60 x 10^20 Joules of energy, but depends really on quality of oil, so there is uncertainty there to the tune of plus or minus 10%.

One square mile of solar PV at a modest 24% efficiency and at a proper angle orientation in the desert or unarable lands will produce the following energy within a year:
1 mile2 x 2,589,988.11 m2/mile2 x 1000 W/m2 x 24% x 5.75 hrs/day (perpendicular equivalent hours averaged through entire year, factoring in typical cloudiness of desert areas, and typical latitude of desert areas) x 3600 Joules/WH x 365 days/year = 4.7 x 10^15 Joules/year

Square miles of solar panels needed: 1.60 x 10^20 joules/ (4.7 x 10^16 Joules /mile2) = 34,068 square miles (plus or minus 10%).

Taking the square root of that number, to give you the relative size, that is just a 184.6 mile by 184.6 mile perfect square area fitted with solar panels and it can replace the world's yearly oil energy equivalent of consumption. That is really a small piece of land that can make the whole world get rid of energy from oil. We can really get rid of oil if we just have the will. While it could really be a very expensive project, it would also create the equivalent of about 4 million new jobs for the Americans.

The Sahara desert is 3,500,000 square miles, Arabian Desert is almost 1 million square miles, Great Basin desert of USA is 190,000 square miles, Takla Makan desert is 105,000 square miles, Atacama desert is 54,000 square miles, and the Mojave desert is 77,220 square miles. Just less than half of the Mojave desert covered with Solar Panels is enough to supply the whole world's energy equivalent from oil. You need more energy for growing economies? Simply pop up more solar power plants. There are plenty of available land for expansion. You can also float the panels out to the oceans, after all, 71% of earth's surface is water.

Of course, solar PV currently is very expensive. But then again, why should we use solar PV? The newly proven work horse is now Solar Thermal Power plants. It is cheaper (less than half) and quicker (requires only a quarter of the time) to build solar thermal power plants compared to nuclear power plants that can have the same capacity. Solar thermal power plants uses molten salt technology to store excess power during the day, and use them to run steam turbines at night, giving a 24 x 7 power supply, much better controlled to match demands compared to nuclear power plants. The peak demands are matched perfectly with solar thermal power plants with excess to boot, to store and use for evening consumption.

Some of us here might be really addicted to oil with vested interests or have mineral rights to oil or sitting on big pile of oil underneath their land holdings.

But soon the oil will be over and it will lose its evil luster and greed. By 2010, I myself would be nearly independent of gasoline for fuel. I have already reserved for an electric car that will only cost me 1.2 cents of electric fuel per mile and will cover 98% of my daily commuting needs. It will be a good start. The big three leading vehicle manufacturers have at least one major entry for electric vehicles that can meet more than 75% of America's daily commuting needs. This cataclysmic change is unstoppable, after realizing that gasoline went beyond $4/gallon. It would take about 10 to 15 years to switch over to mostly electric for daily commute to work, and a lot can happen, but there is no turning back for manufacturers after they reduced or shutdown their guzzler sized trucks. It could be quicker if as a nation we will have the will. We already have the technology, but oil addiction just like drug addiction, is very painful to get rid of.

Then it will be electric price manipulation by the same powers that be who would simply shift from oil to renewables such as wind, solar and biofuels, and I am ready for that price manipulation too (remember Enron? A lesson we will never forget). I will have grid-tied solar PV before then.
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JoeReal
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Posted: Wed 09 Jul, 2008 3:09 pm

Solar PV can replace oil. If you build it, oil will never come back!

1 cubic mile of oil is 26.2 billion barrels at $143/barrel, that costs $3.747 Trillion.

At solar PV of $1/watt, the world needed to invest $21 Trillion to produce the energy of 1 cubic mile of oil per year, and we can pay off our solar investment in just 5.6 years and rid of oil energy forever. Realistically with economies of scale we can bring down the cost of solar power to just $0.25/watt, then the pay off would just be one and a half years.

It can be done if we don't succumb to economic greed. The process would be long and painful, due to human nature and there will be loyal hold overs. There will be backlashes and turmoil, but it can be done technically.
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Millet
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Posted: Wed 09 Jul, 2008 5:52 pm

Joe, I know you really, want solar to come to pass, but in the real world that we all have to live in, solar will never supply the worlds energy needs. Neather will wind. Nuclear, hydrogen, or perhaps a yet unknown break through . Who knows at this time? - Millet
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dauben
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Posted: Thu 10 Jul, 2008 3:06 am

JoeReal wrote:
Solar PV can replace oil. If you build it, oil will never come back!



The three issues with solar that I see are:
1) Lack of polysilicon to produce the quantity of wafers needed to supply power on the magnitude you're thinking of. Other technologies that don't use polysilicon may be viable in the future, but were not there yet.

2) Power only when there's sun. Most applications that currently use oil require some form of energy to be able to work in the dark (driving at night, shipping, rail, airplanes, heating oil, etc) This means transforming solar energy into a form usable at night. We couldn't create enough batteries for the world. Hydrogen maybe, but I'm not up to speed on how much energy it takes to produce hydrogen. I know the H20 bond can be broken with an electrical charge passed through it, but how much energy that takes might be able to be answered by one of the chemists on the forum.

3) Surface Area - Rooftop solar is a fine use of wasted space, but for some applications, you can't fit enough solar cells in the area you need to power the application. We had a solar vendor market to us his product to power our pumps that pump water 1000 feet in elevation. You not only have the issue that we need (and prefer) to pump at night, but the horsepower that we need to pump 16 million gallons of water per day would need so much acreage of land to put solar cells on that it wasn't feasible. Even with the depressed real estate market, California land is still too expensive. When you also consider cars, trains, airplanes, etc that use some form of petroleum byproduct you can't put enough solar cells on them to power the system.

Anyway, I'm all for solar (I even own shares in a solar company), but I just don't think it's a viable replacement for oil (yet?).

Phillip

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JoeReal
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Posted: Thu 10 Jul, 2008 12:31 pm

dauben wrote:
JoeReal wrote:
Solar PV can replace oil. If you build it, oil will never come back!



The three issues with solar that I see are:
1) Lack of polysilicon to produce the quantity of wafers needed to supply power on the magnitude you're thinking of. Other technologies that don't use polysilicon may be viable in the future, but were not there yet.

2) Power only when there's sun. Most applications that currently use oil require some form of energy to be able to work in the dark (driving at night, shipping, rail, airplanes, heating oil, etc) This means transforming solar energy into a form usable at night. We couldn't create enough batteries for the world. Hydrogen maybe, but I'm not up to speed on how much energy it takes to produce hydrogen. I know the H20 bond can be broken with an electrical charge passed through it, but how much energy that takes might be able to be answered by one of the chemists on the forum.

3) Surface Area - Rooftop solar is a fine use of wasted space, but for some applications, you can't fit enough solar cells in the area you need to power the application. We had a solar vendor market to us his product to power our pumps that pump water 1000 feet in elevation. You not only have the issue that we need (and prefer) to pump at night, but the horsepower that we need to pump 16 million gallons of water per day would need so much acreage of land to put solar cells on that it wasn't feasible. Even with the depressed real estate market, California land is still too expensive. When you also consider cars, trains, airplanes, etc that use some form of petroleum byproduct you can't put enough solar cells on them to power the system.

Anyway, I'm all for solar (I even own shares in a solar company), but I just don't think it's a viable replacement for oil (yet?).

Phillip

Phillip


This all shows that I am following the solar industries much more than you do guys! I've been to the facilities of a few of them.

1) There is a projected oversupply of silicon after the Silicon manufacturers have completed a lot of their manufacturing plants. At the same time, the advent of thin film solar which uses only tiny amounts of silicon. The ramping up of thin film solar such as those from Nanosolar are to the tune of Gigawatt capacity per year. More CIGS and low cost thin film are sprouting up everywhere. Just a tip for you. I've been to Solyndra, in a stealth mode going into IPO next year. They too have GW capacities with production costs to the fraction of a dollar per watt. We have others as well, too many to name them at the moment but I do trust you can search for them. One thing to note is that the confluences of these factors will help lower the prices of solar, thus at last my dreams of a solar PV project will be realized because it will now be feasible, after accounting for all finance charges and other factors. Exciting times ahead, just 3 to 5 years, we will see tremendous reductions. Solar is now feasible if I do the installation myself.

Here's the report from highly credible magazine:
A Price Drop for Solar Panels
The silicon shortage that has kept solar electricity expensive is ending.
By Kevin Bullis
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=solar&id=20702&a=

And here's from one of the leading online news source:
Oversupply of Silicon to Be Worse Than Expected
A solar industry forecast by the Prometheus Institute shows the solar industry increasing its silicon production but absorbing the material will take longer than originally predicted.
by: Rachel Barron
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/oversupply-of-silicon-worse-than-expected-947.html


Learning something very important already? There's more!
2) Solar PV is NOT THE ONLY Solar Power plant that can be used. There are in fact cheaper solar thermal technologies out there that are quicker to build and costs cheaper than the same sized capacities nuclear powered plants. And they provide power during peak demands, and prepare not to faint, because they supply power 24 x 7 using molten salt technologies. During the Day from late morning towards noon when the demand hasn't peaked, they store the excess energy by melting salt, and then at night, use the molten salt to generate steam that runs turbines during the no-sunshine hours. Perhaps you have missed reading my post about this. I can surely give you the link to this technology, but I leave it up to you to search for them. Keywords would be Solar Thermal Molten Salt. The current solar thermal plants are now at par with coal plants in terms of electric energy production, without the emissions. It is even cheaper with solar thermal if you operate it beyond the life span of the coal plants.

One thing in strong favor of solar thermal power plants is that they produce the most amount of power when the demand is at its peak. The hotter the afternoon gets due to the blistering sun, the more airconditioners get turned on, but the more power the solar plant gives out, almost automatic. This is something that neither nuclear power plants nor coal power plants can do when they already operate at their rated capacities. Ramping up power to meet demands in nuclear or coal fired plants is not as easy as flipping switches, last time I checked. You have to increase loading, you have to adjust millions of other parameters to change output. Natural gas powered plants are a lot easier to operate to meet demands and they are used as back up for these fixed rated plants but are more expensive.

3) And again dear friend, there is currently a chasm between residential solar PV and commercial solar PV application. Prices for example are more expensive with residential, that they are not economically feasible project as of today, with installed price after rebates anywhere from $5 to $9/watt. Commercial solar on the other hand, along with thin film contracts, are now under $1/watt installed. When it comes to commercial solar PV, there is more than enough space of non-arable lands in California alone to supply the whole world's energy demands. If only energies are straightforward computations, we can replace all the world's energy demand. But of course, we are humans, and it can't be done simply because of that.

Talking about residential. The roof is not the only place you need to install solar PV, but rest assured, most California roof can supply more power than you would ever need on an annual basis by using grid-tied net metering system. The only problem right now is the cost. That is why only a fraction of the roof have solar panels. If you have clicked on the link I provided in number 1, there is reason to be excited. The prices are going down.

And if you get EV type of transport, and along with solar PV, you truly would be independent of energy from utilities and from oil. But that would be another day of discussion.

Just stay tuned for further reports from the various emerging industries.
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bastrees
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Posted: Thu 10 Jul, 2008 3:47 pm

Joe, Your enthusiasm is contagious. I look forward to the day...Barbara
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dauben
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Posted: Fri 11 Jul, 2008 11:05 am

JoeReal wrote:



This all shows that I am following the solar industries much more than you do guys! I've been to the facilities of a few of them.

1) There is a projected oversupply of silicon after the Silicon manufacturers have completed a lot of their manufacturing plants. At the same time, the advent of thin film solar which uses only tiny amounts of silicon. The ramping up of thin film solar such as those from Nanosolar are to the tune of Gigawatt capacity per year. More CIGS and low cost thin film are sprouting up everywhere. Just a tip for you. I've been to Solyndra, in a stealth mode going into IPO next year. They too have GW capacities with production costs to the fraction of a dollar per watt. We have others as well, too many to name them at the moment but I do trust you can search for them. One thing to note is that the confluences of these factors will help lower the prices of solar, thus at last my dreams of a solar PV project will be realized because it will now be feasible, after accounting for all finance charges and other factors. Exciting times ahead, just 3 to 5 years, we will see tremendous reductions. Solar is now feasible if I do the installation myself.


I've been aware that the bottleneck in polysilicon is easing up. Even the solar company that I'm invested in will have a new polysilicon plant up and running by 2009, but the supply issue I'm talking about is whether there is enough of the stuff to "replace oil". I don't think so, but I've honestly not done the math. I agree with you that some of the new technology looks promising. I have been following that to a limited extent. I hope you're right.

JoeReal wrote:


2) Solar PV is NOT THE ONLY Solar Power plant that can be used. There are in fact cheaper solar thermal technologies out there that are quicker to build and costs cheaper than the same sized capacities nuclear powered plants. And they provide power during peak demands, and prepare not to faint, because they supply power 24 x 7 using molten salt technologies. During the Day from late morning towards noon when the demand hasn't peaked, they store the excess energy by melting salt, and then at night, use the molten salt to generate steam that runs turbines during the no-sunshine hours. Perhaps you have missed reading my post about this. I can surely give you the link to this technology, but I leave it up to you to search for them. Keywords would be Solar Thermal Molten Salt. The current solar thermal plants are now at par with coal plants in terms of electric energy production, without the emissions. It is even cheaper with solar thermal if you operate it beyond the life span of the coal plants.


Honestly, I didn't see the link. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. However, I still question the ability of solar to replace oil at night even with the "molten salt" technology unless you can put the molten salt reactor on every car, bus, train, airplane, etc. The things we use oil for primarily need a energy storage system stored on the application. Heating oil is the one exception. I could see oil being replaced for that application.

JoeReal wrote:

One thing in strong favor of solar thermal power plants is that they produce the most amount of power when the demand is at its peak. The hotter the afternoon gets due to the blistering sun, the more airconditioners get turned on, but the more power the solar plant gives out, almost automatic. This is something that neither nuclear power plants nor coal power plants can do when they already operate at their rated capacities. Ramping up power to meet demands in nuclear or coal fired plants is not as easy as flipping switches, last time I checked. You have to increase loading, you have to adjust millions of other parameters to change output. Natural gas powered plants are a lot easier to operate to meet demands and they are used as back up for these fixed rated plants but are more expensive.


If solar can be utilized, I think you're right that the best application for it would be for peaking power. The warm hot days where everyone has their air on is the same time when solar power generation would be at it's highest.

JoeReal wrote:

3) And again dear friend, there is currently a chasm between residential solar PV and commercial solar PV application. Prices for example are more expensive with residential, that they are not economically feasible project as of today, with installed price after rebates anywhere from $5 to $9/watt. Commercial solar on the other hand, along with thin film contracts, are now under $1/watt installed. When it comes to commercial solar PV, there is more than enough space of non-arable lands in California alone to supply the whole world's energy demands. If only energies are straightforward computations, we can replace all the world's energy demand. But of course, we are humans, and it can't be done simply because of that.


Even for our commercial application at work, we found it not to be cost effective for our application. Yes, with subsidies, etc many commercial applications are finding it cost effective. Even Wal-Mart is going solar here in California. But I think you're correct that as the price comes down, solar may be a cost efffective alternative. But my entire argument isn't with the future ability of solar to offset electrictical demand. My entire debate is with respect to the ability of "solar to replace oil" which is the subject of this thread. For the applications that use oil now, I don't see solar being a replacement unless there is an ability to transfer solar energy into a form that is transportable with the cars, buses, trains, ships, etc. Batteries won't do it.

Anyway, Joe, I'm not being argumentative. For your sake and mine I would love to see solar replace oil. There are some technologies showing limited promise in the ability to store energy, but to get from a concept to a feasible mass produced object is years away and will require some form of large scale construction. These days even the best ideas are shot down by environmentalists and the not in my back yard crowds. They may agree with the concept, but kill it when they find out where it's going. Even construction in a barren desert will have the tortise society up in arms filing law suits. Smile

Thanks for the links and the discussion. I'll look at your molten salt thread this weekend.

Phillip
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Millet
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Posted: Fri 11 Jul, 2008 1:06 pm

Wal-Mart had enough serious side issues that forced them into putting solar, and some wind at their locations. Wal-Mart developed a less then welcome image with the enviros, an image of being a non-green company. They hope this will "change" their perception. Locally, Wall-Mart installed a windmill at yet another new store, but I notice it is actually operational only about 6 months out of the year. This store also promotes their use of waste kitchen oils to aid in heating the store (yeah right). - Millet
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JoeReal
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Posted: Fri 11 Jul, 2008 2:01 pm

Phillip,

My point is that, IF we talk only about energy equivalents, certainly, oil energy, in fact even all of the world's energy needs can be replaced with solar.

There are still many uses for oil. Where would my automatic irrigation be without those pipes made from oil? How can we have cheaper roads? Although we can find substitutes, it would be very challenging.

As for energy replacement, and how it can be done, we can only try, and as Bob would love to point out, it won't be done in our lifetime.

The approach would be multi-prong technologies. I'll post more later.

Joe
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dauben
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Posted: Sat 12 Jul, 2008 4:47 pm

JoeReal wrote:

As for energy replacement, and how it can be done, we can only try, and as Bob would love to point out, it won't be done in our lifetime.



Maybe maybe not. My grandfather just passed away last week. As I reflect on his life being born in poverty in Arkansas, they didn't have electricity, automobiles, airplanes, etc. Penicillin wasn't discovered yet and they had to hitch the wagon to get into town. Microwaves, refrigeration, air conditioning, and indoor plumbing weren't heard of yet.

The difference I see between now and then though is the attitude and priorities of Americans have changed. During the Great Depression, you had a country full of people who wanted to work, but couldn't find a job. Nowadays, you have a nation full of jobs, but people who don't want to work and complain when they have to. It's hard to see advancements in energy or anywhere else with the modern philosophies, ethics, politics, and activism against all forms of progress. Solar may be one of the great achievements in the next 50 years (I certainly hope so), but there's certainly hurdles. I don't plan on being one of them, but it'll be interesting to see how the things we currently use oil for could be replaced by solar. I'll keep my eyes peeled for the technology on the horizon and your articles Joe.

Phillip
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bastrees
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Posted: Mon 14 Jul, 2008 2:06 pm

Quote:
Nowadays, you have a nation full of jobs, but people who don't want to work and complain when they have to.


It is broad strokes of the pen like this that cause deaf ears to even a speaker's valid arguments.

Quote:
The difference I see between now and then though is the attitude and priorities of Americans have changed.


To a very large extent, We the People have cultivated an entitlement mindset. Think about the differences in the safety net that the government (We the People) has put in place since the Great Depression. We have the ability to change the world, for good or for bad. Sometimes we do not have enough foresight when we enact policy, and there are unintended consequences. I believe in individual responsibility, don't get me wrong, but part of our responsibility is owning up to our collective part of the blame for the entitlement mindset. Your grandfather probably never felt that the government owed him a job, healthcare, money, a home, safety from debtors, etc. He was more than likely raised under the philosophy that you made your own way, paid your own debts, and thanked your Lord for every new day. There are still people out there like that, believe it or not. I think it would be good for our country to "buck up" and take this challenge head on, while using discernment and foresight in enacting any new policy. Barbara
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