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Citrus Growers Forum
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 4:41 pm |
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JoeReal wrote: | [size=18]
Clean-energy research firm New Energy Finance has waded into the "food versus fuel" debate and finds that oil is a bigger factor in rising food prices than biofuels. |
I generally agree with this, though higher input costs don't directly (or immediately) lead to higher food costs. Farmers have often sold crops at prices below the cost of production. Supply and demand set the prices for crops. However, this is usually just a short term situation as growers would eventually quit growing those commodities (especially in the absence of subsidies). Higher energy prices certainly get passed directly on to the consumer for transportation, processing, etc., though even then the manufacturers may be forced to absorb some of those costs if competition is intense.
Biofuel production has probably enabled farmers to obtain higher prices to offset their higher input costs more quickly as they now have alternative markets (greater demand).
I'm surprised the report did not make any mention of droughts in Australia and Europe leading to smaller food supplies. _________________ Harvey |
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JoeReal Site Admin
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 4726 Location: Davis, California
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 4:42 pm |
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Had no time to expand that statement as I was watching over my sprinklers, testing them. Just fixed last night.
Anyway, we can come up with something like we should encourage farmers who are producing alternative fuels and who are finding methods of minimizing use of oil.
There are many other things that a farmer can do, it is not just using vascular plants for making fuel. The BIGGEST PROBLEM with vascular plants as a fuel factory is that it uses more than 90% of sunlight's energy to evaporate water away. And in turn, we haul (or help transport) water so that these these vascular plants will evaporate it away. Thus in effect, we seldom exceed 5% of conversion energy. But that is inescapable, vascular plants need the transpirational stream to get its nutrients so that we can have food to eat.
Imagine, increasing the potential yield of fuel by 1,900% and without using a lot of water. Anyone with vast tracts of land, it can be done. And farmers have vast tracts of land...
There is huge potential that can be realized, even if we get only half the theoretical limit. |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 6:08 pm |
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Harvey wrote....."almost $30 billion would go to farmers to idle their land and for other environmental programs..........
Paying farmers for not farming comes under the CRP program (Conservation Reserve Program). This program, of course, also applies in Adams County, Colorado the county where I farm. The government's CRP will pay a farmer money for not farming land considered to be highly erodible or otherwise environmental delicate. However, because Adams county is a county with very flat level ground, there was not enough highly erodible land to fill the counties CRP payments quota. Therefore, the Agricultural Department allowed any farmer in Adams county with any type of land, even the very optimum farmable land to enter the program, so that the government's payments quota could be filled. Actually, later the quota was abandoned and anyone can put there land in CRP, and collect free money from the government, while they go to town, find a job and earn more money. - Millet (Drill ANWR) |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 6:55 pm |
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Actually, I think the Agricultural Industry in America would be better off if the government never got involved with agriculture in the first place - Millet (Drill ANWR) |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 7:01 pm |
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Bob, I think the agricultural industry might be better off but I don't honestly think the American public would be better off. Fewer farmers would stay in business and the cost of food would go up and we could potentially become reliant on imports for our food supply. That would be even worse than relying on imported oil, IMHO. _________________ Harvey |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 7:34 pm |
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Harvey you could be right, but I am a believer in market forces. When the price of imported oil gets high enough, market forces might break the environmentalist grip on anti oil production, and then perhaps when the House and Senate feels the public outrage, they will wake up and drill our own domestic oil reserves, such as ANWR. I remember when the Alaskan pipeline was proposed. The environmentalists said that the pipe line would harm the Alaskan Caribou, but as now known, it turned out that the Caribou easily adapted very well, and the herds increased. - Millet (Drill ANWR) |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 10:01 pm |
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I agree with you on the drilling, Bob.
The thing that's different about farming that especially the non-farmers don't consider is that farmers cannot control production very well. If they get a couple of years of high yields, there becomes a glut and prices fall below the cost of production. Do oil producers allow that to happen? No, they shut down some wells to get prices that make economic sense for them. Farmers would be better off dumping some of their excess supplies, but that's an impossible idea to get acted on. Even OPEC has their own problems in their relatively small group to get members to comply with production quotas. Trying to get millions of farmers to agree to do something is impossible.
Extended droughts or other weather problems could also be problematic whereas oil companies can usually just drill more wells to increase production or bring idel wells back online. This pertains to disaster aid for farmers, though, not subsidies.
I am a capitalist, so please don't otherwise. _________________ Harvey |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Fri 23 May, 2008 11:18 pm |
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Farmers have been making money off the backs of other farmers for ever. Crop prices rise for some farmers due to crop failures for other farmers, example Europe and Australia last year. I used to have oil wells on my properties, but they were all been pretty much pumped dry, and removed several years back. - Millet (Drill ANWR) |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Wed 28 May, 2008 12:17 pm |
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With farm prices being as high as they are, farmers are receiving more money from their crops, and therefore have more money to spend. Recently, the John Deere Company cut off all future orders for their combines, which cost up to $300,000.00 each. A John Deere spokesman said, that the company has received so many orders from farmers, that the manufacturing backlog is well into next year. - Millet |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Wed 28 May, 2008 12:32 pm |
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Yeah, but I don't see any corn farmers around here ever buying those new machines. Many successful farmers around here, but they've usually bought those trade-ins from the midwest.
You probably read this article on Yahoo yesterday which I found interesting as well. There is some mention of higher input costs, but it seems to not get the attention that is warranted.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080527/ap_on_bi_ge/food_inflation_winners
As food prices spiral, farmers, others profit
By JOSHUA FREED and ASHLEY M. HEHER, AP Business Writers
Tue May 27, 2:24 PM ET
Quote: | The steepest run-ups in food prices since 1990 are hurting grocery shoppers, restaurants and school cafeterias but they're making others rich.
The winners in the new food economy include crop farmers selling corn and wheat for near-record highs after years of crushingly low prices. Ingredient makers like Cargill and ADM are rife with profits. Fertilizer and tractor companies are cashing in. Hedge funds who made big bets on rising wheat, soy and corn were spectacularly correct. Oil and gas companies, too it takes natural gas to cook those Wheaties and diesel to haul them around the country.
Travel along the nation's food chain and you'll find some of the biggest profits closest to the land. The nation's farmers, who raise everything from cows to cucumbers, saw their average household income climb about 7 percent last year to more than $83,000. But in grain-rich states, the results were dramatically higher. In Minnesota alone, the median income for crop farmers soared 80 percent to $95,000.
That brings us to Chad Willis.
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Willis raises corn and soy beans on 550 acres near Willmar, some of the nation's best corn-growing country.
He sells his grain nine miles up the road from an ethanol plant he invested in. His family cars are powered by an 85 percent blend of the corn-based fuel. His black and gold-trimmed cap reads "E85 Everywhere." And he knows that grocery shoppers jolted by higher prices for cereal or eggs or chicken think it's because of ethanol, which consumed 20 percent of last year's corn crop.
Willis isn't saying how much he made last year. While he acknowledges these are good times to be a farmer, he says he's not pulling in as much as the median income for crop farmers.
"Most people are excited, yes, but cautious about when things are going to turn around, and how hard it's going to turn around," he said.
In between Willis' farm and town, the owners of Haug Implement are having some of the best times anyone can remember. The Deere & Co. dealer sells farm tractors that can run to $160,000 or more and combines that can cost $300,000, a major investment even in the best of times.
Normally Haug would still be taking orders for combines for delivery for the fall harvest. But Deere cut off new orders in mid-November because demand was so high.
Owner Donald Haug Jr. says it wasn't long ago that he couldn't close on new equipment unless he narrowed the gap between trade-in and the sale price to $10,000.
"We're seeing some substantial purchasing, and we're talking over $100,000, and the guy just strokes the check for it," he said.
The boom times in farm country have arrived. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have been pushed at or near record highs by a combination of high demand and new money from hedge fund traders who used to show little interest in those markets. Over the past 20 years, Minneapolis Grain Exchange trading volume has risen almost six-fold to a new record last year. The run-up is because in the frenzied trading the same commodities are changing hands far more than they used to.
"Grain farmers are making a hell of a lot of money," said Peter Georgantones, president of Investment Trading Services, a commodities brokerage in Bloomington, Minn. "I got grain farmers a ton of them who are going to improve their net worth this year net, now by a half a million bucks minimum. For one year. That's a nice gain. Not to mention their land's worth more."
Newspapers cover much of the floor in his office and 22 yellow Post-it notes cover much of his desk, where one computer terminal shows nothing but commodity prices. Every few minutes his phone rings with a call from a farmer checking crop prices.
"These guys, they grow 60, 70, 80 thousand bushels of beans," he said. "I got guys sitting on $2, $3 million worth of grain right now. Farmers are making good money."
The International Monetary Fund estimates biofuels accounted for almost half the increase in consumption of major food crops in 2006-2007, saying it has propelled prices for corn, other grains, meat, poultry and dairy.
Others dispute that. A report last month from the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University said higher corn prices have had little to do with rising food costs because other factors, such as rising energy costs, have been at least as important.
Willis, the farmer near Willmar, is quick to point out that farmers pay much of those profits right back out to their own suppliers.
The liquid propane that runs his corn drier cost $1.55 per gallon last year. He's been told to expect $2 this year. Fertilizer last year ran $115 per acre. This spring it cost double that. He bought 2,500 gallons of diesel fuel for his tractors last year, at a price that started at $2.50 a gallon and rose to $3.09 by the end of the year and has risen further since then.
"You look at the grain prices, yeah, that's nice," he said. "But everything's going up right along with it."
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While virtually all businesses are contending with higher energy costs, the rising commodities prices are proving to be bottom-line boosters for other sectors, too.
Profits at seed and pesticide maker Monsanto Inc. reached nearly $1 billion last year a 14-fold increase since 2003. They've tripled to $1.1 billion at agrichemical maker Syngenta and agriculture divisions of DuPont Co. and Dow Chemical Co. have also seen their earnings balloon.
Cargill, which makes ingredients and trades in commodities markets, boosted its profits to $2.3 billion, up nearly six-fold since 2001.
Meanwhile, profits at agricultural processor Archer Daniels Midland Co. have more than quadrupled to $2.16 billion during the same period.
Fertilizer makers are winning big, too.
Mosaic Co. saw its third-quarter profits jump tenfold to $520.8 million because strong demand from farmers is giving it power to raise prices.
Companies like Deere, the world's biggest maker of farm machinery, are in the midst of flush times, too.
Between 2005 and 2007, Deere's net profit rose more than 25 percent to $1.8 billion. Meanwhile, operating profits of the Moline, Ill.-based company's agriculture division rose nearly 50 percent, to $1.4 billion.
"Everybody is getting their little piece. Everybody wants a piece of the pie," said Lee Richardson, a 37-year-old farmer from Willards, Md., who's seen the robust profits of his grain harvest consumed by the increasing costs of raising more than 1 million chickens annually on his family's 2,200-acre farm
Food prices in the U.S. rose about 4 percent last year, which may not sound like much, but it's the fastest rate since 1990, according to the Agriculture Department. Prices on some foods rose much faster. White bread prices rose 13 percent last year, bacon 7 percent. Peanut butter jumped 9 percent.
And it's picking up speed. Food inflation is running at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent as of April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 14.
In addition, a weakened dollar makes American produce cheap and desirable abroad while weather-wrecked harvests in some foreign countries have generated regional scarcities, increasing global demand for products. At the same time, emerging economies in India and China are creating nations of residents demanding higher-quality ingredients and food.
The rising prices are forcing changes at food and ingredient buyers such as Kraft Foods Inc.
Kraft Foods Inc. has seen its commodities costs grow 9 percent, or $1.3 billion. This year, the company expects to see an even bigger input cost increase.
It's raising prices across the board, but the Northfield, Ill.-based food maker is also getting innovative by changing some product packaging to save money. It switched its classic Miracle Whip jar from glass to plastic. The lighter packaging saves Kraft 87,000 gallons of fuel each year, said spokesman Mike Miller.
Even if this year's global harvest is robust, shoppers shouldn't expect big price breaks anytime soon. The USDA said it expects food prices to rise another 4 percent to 5 percent this year.
"We're in a new era," said Mike Helmar, director of industry economics at Moody's Economy.com, "where prices are going to be a bit higher than they were in the past." | _________________ Harvey |
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Millet Citruholic
Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 6656 Location: Colorado
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Posted: Wed 28 May, 2008 6:50 pm |
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Harvey, yes I did read that article. In fact it is in this mornings Rocky Mountain News. Around here, I have never seen any farmers purchase trade in combines, but rather they purchase new, keep them for a couple years, and than trade them in for other new combines. A neighbor for mine, last year purchase 18 new combines, which he usually trades in every year. He farms 200,000 acres of winter wheat east and south of me. However, the vast majority of farms do not harvest their own grain, but have it harvested by commercial cutters, and commercial cutters cannot keep combines long, due to how hard and long they run them. Last year the commercial cutters charged 15-15-15. It seems to go up a little every year or so. - Millet |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Thu 29 May, 2008 1:54 am |
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Around here a used combine is typically kept by a farmer for 10 or more years with very little downtime. Most farms range from 200 acres to 2,000 acres, though there are a few in the range of 10,000 acres.
Fortunately for me, the customer operator that swaths and bales my alfalfa kept his rate unchanged at $29/ton while the balewagon operator increased his rate only very slightly for $3.75/bale (averaging 1,300 pounds) to $3.85. Our highest price received last year was $170/ton, which was a record price, but we've already been up to $235-$240 on our first two cuttings this year. It is crazy. The hay equipment used on our farm costs about $700,000-$750,000, more than what's in my budget! Each piece only spends 1-2 days here each month, though.
My farming operation is not large enough to be considered a full-time operation (thus I have very little hired help), but you wouldn't be able to tell it from my financial results. I have no idea how long it might last. It is strange that there is almost no mention about the hay market in the newspapers. My input costs are less than corn but profit is about 200% higher. I like the fact that corn gets all the attention! Nobody (pratically) eats alfalfa and almost nobody realizes that higher dairy prices can be blamed, in part, on higher hay costs.
My small government payment of $25/acre of so is crazy but insignificant. They will get it all back and more in income taxes. _________________ Harvey |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Thu 19 Jun, 2008 5:11 am |
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The farm bill is now fully enacted.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080618/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_farm_bill
Congress enacts farm bill over Bush veto, again By MARY CLARE JALONICK, Associated Press Writer
Wed Jun 18, 6:21 PM ET
Congress enacted a massive $290 billion farm bill for a second time on Wednesday after a clerical error in the first bill threatened delivery of U.S. food aid abroad.
The Senate voted 80-14 to override President Bush's veto of the legislation, more than the two-thirds majority necessary to enact it. Bush vetoed the bill for a second time earlier Wednesday, and the House voted 317-109 to override it a few hours later.
Most of the bill was enacted in May, when both the House and Senate easily overrode Bush's first veto of the legislation. But 34 pages of the bill that would extend foreign aid programs were mistakenly missing from the parchment copy Congress sent to the White House, so that section did not become law.
To ensure the aid continues amid a global hunger crisis and to prevent future legal challenges Congress and Bush again passed, vetoed and enacted the entire bill to provide farm subsidies, food stamps and other nutrition programs over the next five years.
The mistake has delayed shipments of food to Ethiopia, Myanmar and Somalia, said Stephen Driesler, the U.S. Agency for International Development's deputy assistant administrator for legislative and public affairs.
"We have orders ready to go," Driesler said.
Bush contends that the legislation, which extends agriculture and nutrition programs, is too expensive and too generous with subsidies for farmers. He opposed the legislation from the start and began threatening to veto it last July.
He said Congress missed an opportunity to make the bill better when it was passed a second time.
"For a year and a half, I have consistently asked that the Congress pass a good farm bill that I can sign," Bush said after he vetoed the bill for the second time. "Regrettably, the Congress has failed to do so. At a time of high food prices and record farm income, this bill lacks program reform and fiscal discipline."
About two-thirds of the farm law pays for domestic nutrition programs such as food stamps, which will see increases of around $1 billion a year. About $40 billion is for farm subsidies, and almost $30 billion will go to farmers to protect environmentally sensitive farmland.
Congress has overridden Bush on only one other bill a measure authorizing $23 billion in water projects that was enacted in November. _________________ Harvey |
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dauben Citruholic
Joined: 25 Nov 2006 Posts: 963 Location: Ramona, CA, Zone 9A
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Posted: Fri 20 Jun, 2008 2:37 am |
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You guys make me want to be a farmer. It's in my blood and my geneology on both sides of my family. The crazy thing is, someone can leave the farm and learn a trade outside of farming to earn a living, but how would someone learn to farm unless they were raised on the farm? FFA seems to be catered to kids (who likely come from farming families).
Anyway, just curious . . . I'm not leaving engineering since it treats me well, but reading the drivel in the newspaper about county clerks being forced to perform gay marriages despite their religious objections makes me want to head for the hills. Where do I pick up 200,000 acres (cheap)?
Phillip |
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harveyc Citruholic
Joined: 10 Jan 2007 Posts: 372 Location: Sacramento Delta USDA Zone 9
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Posted: Fri 20 Jun, 2008 4:20 am |
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Phillip,
200,000 acres??? Wow, you want to become a billionaire in one year before the absence of solar flares freezes us over??
Rather than cheap, I suggest you focus your efforts on fertile land with abundant water supplies. Sometimes we have a bit more water than we want (some ground is poorly drained and all of it is subject to flooding in rare circumstances since I'm slightly above to slightly below sea level). There are probably opportunities around where absentee owners might be looking for better returns than they get under existing leases. My partner and I will be talking to such a landowner next week to significantly expand our farming operation. But not all farming is particularly profitable now. While corn prices get much attention, the farmers' seed, fertilizer, and fuel costs are also up substantially. Other areas are dependent on labor which might be in short supply.
I have my crop reporting forms to mail off to the USDA tomorrow. I'm not really sure I will get any small subsidy payment this year but I could care less, to be honest. But I feel forced to stay in the programs in the event economics get bad some day and I find myself relying on the subisdy payments to keep from losing too much money. That doesn't appear likely anytime soon, however. Other alfalfa growers in other areas of California are having to cut back on irrigating due to reduced water supplies so I expect alfalfa prices to stay high for some time and I have no plans to farm significant acreages of grains anytime soon.
If you really want to learn farming, show up tomorrow night at 9pm. It's just after 11pm here and I just started water in one alfalfa field and will be checking it again a couple of times over the next couple of hours before going to bed. Tomorrow night I will likely be irrigating a field that requires me to check the water ever couple of hours during the night. It's not so bad really as it the moon is nearly full and it is not hot at night. It would be a really good educational experience for you. I've got an extra set of size 11 rubber boots if you're interested. Act quick, free training is a limited time offer and subject to unspecified terms and conditions.
Harvey _________________ Harvey |
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