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Weird weather projection for next 10 days
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ivica Moderator
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 Posts: 658 Location: Sisak, Croatia, zone 7b
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Posted: Wed 12 Jan, 2011 6:14 pm |
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Disclaimer first:
10 days is too much for reliable projection under unstable NH conditions we have these days i.e. that is probably not gonna happen, not so bad. I'm posting this for two reasons:
1. Better safe than sorry. Keep an eye on it in following days.
2. It is interesting. Watching events in NorthernHemisphere for 5+ years I can not recall any similar event in the past.
Center of cold projected to move over Canada, a week from now:
See animation or go to the frame Nr. 15:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=gfsm,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn,.gif,122,242,362,482,602,722,842,962,1082,1202,1322,1442,1562,1682,1802
Note: 850 hPa is 'like' height of around 1.5 km (5000 feet).
Note: 500 hPa is 'like' height of around 5 km (18000 feet).
General link for above, GFS Wz (N-Hemisphere):
http://www.westwind.ch/?page=gfsm
Projection for 10 days from now,
Chart type: Nth hemisphere H500
Event: T240, Run 12 Z.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110112/12/240/npsh500.png
Take care. _________________
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Sun 23 Jan, 2011 3:54 am |
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I think north central Canada is the coldest place on the planet now. Even colder than Siberia! There is a very intense cold air mass building in northeast Canada over the next week but should start to moderate some after January 30. This is the coldest January since 1985! |
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ivica Moderator
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 Posts: 658 Location: Sisak, Croatia, zone 7b
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Posted: Sun 23 Jan, 2011 4:20 am |
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TRI, Watching current conditions could be interesting,
this should update every 6 hours:
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif
7 day Global GFS projection could be interesting too:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=gfsm,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rwavn,.gif,122,242,362,482,602,722,842,962,1082,1202,1322,1442,1562,1682,1802
Use Play button to animate. _________________
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Sun 23 Jan, 2011 2:51 pm |
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Temperatures from Pittsburg to the northeast coast to the southeast have been consistently colder than normal since Dec 1 with few days even near normal! Usually there are brief periods of warmer than normal temperatures most winters, but this winter it has been very persistently cold. Even here the temperatures are 4 to 5F below normal since Dec 1.
Much colder than normal winter temperatures since January 2010 but nothing too extreme. This is like the 1970s.
I would really like to be much further south maybe south of Brownsville Texas. The area 200 miles south of Brownsville looks quite mild most winters. Not as cold there in 1983. The coldest air usually does not penetrate that far south. South Florida is somewhat well protected but it can get very cold even there In south Texas it is not as mild in cold spells and you must go south of Brownville. I think south Florida may not be as protected now due to loss of wet lands.
One thing I have learned if you are east of the Rockies you must be far far south to escape severe freezes. Extreme cold has such a long reach in North America especially east of the Rockies compared to Europe or Asia.
Brazil is another nice warm spot with very little risk of freezes. The January 2010 cold air mass penetrated down to Cuba setting record low temperatures there. I would like to grow other sub tropicals like guavas but I need a warmer climate to be successful long term.
Citrus is not the only sub tropical available there are so many more options but you need a warm climate. |
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ivica Moderator
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 Posts: 658 Location: Sisak, Croatia, zone 7b
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Posted: Sun 23 Jan, 2011 4:45 pm |
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TRI wrote: | ...The area 200 miles south of Brownsville looks quite mild most winters. ... |
That is area which got direct hit from Hurricane Alex last year.
I've watched Brownsville area quite closely last hurricane season. Brownsville itself got more-or-less direct hits by TS Hermine and TD Two last season. I saw no report of citrus damage by all that wind&floods but that was not good season for growers there.
West mexican coast looks better place to me, like a more wetty Mediterranen style area.
Mediterranen basin has USDA zones 8..11, fresh water could be the problem. Citrus is in full invasion on Delta Of Nil.
Brazil has very interesting spots indeed. _________________
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Sat 19 Feb, 2011 8:48 pm |
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Warmest temperatures here today since November! Almost feels like summer outside. Citrus plants are still dormant though.
The winter is almost over! |
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Tom Citruholic
Joined: 11 Nov 2008 Posts: 261 Location: Alabama [Central]
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Posted: Sat 19 Feb, 2011 10:34 pm |
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Today was great in central Alabama. Was suppose to get up to 77 degrees F. Hope the bad stuff is over but I would not bet on it. I have seen signifcant snow in April....old saying in the cattle business, "February shakes them and March takes them".....One day this winter I saw the historic high and low for that date in February was from 80 degrees F all the way down to 0 degrees F.....crazy stuff but everybody is fired up about the beautiful weather right now. _________________ Tom in central Alabama |
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Sun 20 Feb, 2011 2:15 am |
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Tom wrote: | Today was great in central Alabama. Was suppose to get up to 77 degrees F. Hope the bad stuff is over but I would not bet on it. I have seen signifcant snow in April....old saying in the cattle business, "February shakes them and March takes them".....One day this winter I saw the historic high and low for that date in February was from 80 degrees F all the way down to 0 degrees F.....crazy stuff but everybody is fired up about the beautiful weather right now. |
If the cold stuff comes it will come very late because it is not coming in the next 15 days for sure south of 30N. The worst of this winter is very very likely over south of 34N latitude. We may have a setup similar to that in December late March/early April but the arctic air will be greatly moderated at that point. |
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ivica Moderator
Joined: 08 Jan 2007 Posts: 658 Location: Sisak, Croatia, zone 7b
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Posted: Tue 22 Feb, 2011 3:10 pm |
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Jet Stream acts like a wounded beast now. The main battle seems to be in Pacific area. Atlantic gives its best as well.
http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html
Tibet won already (press Play button to see 'heart bits' there).
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=gfsm,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rwavn,.gif,122,242,362,482,602,722,842,962,1082,1202,1322,1442,1562,1682,1802
Spring can not be far away. _________________
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Tue 22 Feb, 2011 5:36 pm |
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The sun angle today is about like October 19 so the sun will warm the arctic soon. The ice will break up and snow will melt and the cold air mass season will end. Spring may already arrived in the southern tier. |
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TRI Citruholic
Joined: 13 Jan 2010 Posts: 399 Location: Homestead, FL Zone 10
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Posted: Tue 03 May, 2011 11:38 am |
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It is very cold for this time of year in deep south. There was a frost advisory in Oklahoma this morning. This is probably the coldest day in May in decades, certainly in my lifetime. |
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danero2004 Citruholic
Joined: 19 Jun 2009 Posts: 523 Location: Romania Zone 6a
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Posted: Tue 03 May, 2011 6:15 pm |
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There will be in the beginning no global warming but a global cooling and after that we can talk about the "global warming" |
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