NWS and others are beginning to release outlooks for this winter.

See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Temperature Deviation from Average:

(valid Sept 1- Dec 1)
(valid Dec 1 - Mar 1)
(valid Mar 1 - June 1)

Precipitation Deviation from Average:

(valid Sept 1- Dec 1)
(valid Dec 1 - Mar 1)
(valid Mar 1 - June 1)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbZtEkXshG4&feature=related
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23461&st=1390

Will post more tomorrow with some explanations.

P.

It looks a slightly warmer than normal winter for the east coast. The storm track will likely be further north this winter with a positive NAO phase for most of the winter but it will go negative sometime in December and January but it will not stay negative for such long periods like the last two winters. There will be some occasional deep troughs and some very cold air will plunge south. South will have some severe cold snaps but will have very mild weather most of the winter. The coldest months should be December and January with a very mild February.


It looks like the southwest will have a very mild winter.

Most years most of the weather experts predicted a cold winter since 1990. They have been wrong most of these years. People like extremes and so that is what they predict. There are global warming and cooling fanatics all over. In the 1980s there were some very extreme cold snaps but the weather was very mild before and after these cold snaps. The same in the 1960s and 1970s. Nothing has changed at all. There will extreme cold snaps probably this winter but that is not anything new certainly in North America. Every winter in North America is cold and this one will not be that much colder if even as cold than the last two winters,that you can be real sure.

If there were some east west oriented mountains in Canada severe cold would not even be possible in the southeast. The cold air in most of the arctic air masses is very shallow and is easily blocked by mountains. That is why Asia is not anywhere near as cold as North America.


The coldest air masses in the northern hemisphere originate in Siberia not Canada. Extreme cold in the south only happens when you get cross polar flow from Siberia into Canada that is transported to the deep south.

What climate zone is Wellton,AZ?