http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-bk-citrus-forecast-011209,0,2803256.story

Forecast: January citrus crop to drop

Jerry W. Jackson | Sentinel Staff Writer
11:01 AM EST, January 12, 2009

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this morning released its January citrus crop forecast for the current harvest season and reduced its orange estimate by 3 million boxes to 162 million boxes.

The crop forecasting arm of USDA maintained its prediction that 23 million boxes of grapefruit will be produced in the 2008-09 season.

Mike Sparks, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus, in Lakeland, said the smaller orange crop is "manageable" and might spur badly needed higher returns to growers. He said the state's citrus growers are "facing very high" costs for disease control and fertilizer. "We are in the middle of a very challenging season," Sparks said in a written statement this morning.

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=148282

USDA Crop Production: Citrus Highlights

1/12/2009
Pro Farmer Editors

All Orange Production Down Slightly from December

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.12 million tons, down slightly from the December 1 forecast and 10 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), decreased 2 percent from the previous forecast and is down 5 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), down 3 percent from December but up slightly from last season.

Florida's Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from the 2007-08 crop. Fruit size is below average for the early, midseason, and navel crop and fruit drop continued to increase at a faster than average rate. Current fruit size and drop remained below average for the Valencia crop.

The all orange forecast in California, at 46.5 million boxes (1.74 million tons), is 6 percent higher than October's forecast but 28 percent below last season. The navel forecast is 34.5 million boxes (1.29 million tons), up 8 percent from the October forecast but down 29 percent from 2007-08's final utilization. California's Valencia orange forecast is 12.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 25 percent below last season. Navel harvest was slightly behind schedule, with picking slowed due to fog, rain, and cold temperatures. Fruit quality was reported as good.

The Texas all orange forecast is 1.65 million boxes (71,000 tons), up 10 percent from October but 5 percent lower than last season. The early and midseason forecast is 1.45 million boxes (62,000 tons), up 12 percent from October but 3 percent less than the 2007-08 season. Texas Valencia oranges are forecast at 200,000 boxes (9,000 tons), unchanged from the October forecast but 15 percent below last season. The Arizona all orange forecast is 250,000 boxes (10,000 tons), unchanged from October but down 34 percent from the previous season. Navel utilization in Arizona is forecast at 150,000 boxes (6,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 35 percent lower than last season. Valencia oranges in Arizona are forecast at 100,000 boxes (4,000 tons), unchanged from October but 33 percent below last season's final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 42 degrees Brix, up 3 percent from the December forecast but 3 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.58 gallons per box, up 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.55 gallons per box.

The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.66 gallons per box, 7 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

Are there statistics on how many acres of citrus groves were transfered to commercial and residential land in 2008? - Millet

I haven't seen any myself, but something may pop up. If I come across any I'll post them.

The Florida Turnpike from Wildwood to Orlando used to be unbroken miles of orange groves. After the big freezes of the mid-eighties there aren't a tenth of the groves that used to be there now. Houses on the other hand have spread like fire ants.

.....Alan.