There is some unexpected negative feedback loop that has recently been suspected to put a damper on the intensities and frequencies of hurricanes.

In modeling system parlance, including that of global scale, one can build a positive feedback loop equation, another a negative feedback loop, and the rest are in between, depending upon how you connect and construct them about proven knowledge. A positive feedback loop is like a snowball effect, as most newspaper journalist would compare it to, where as long as there is sticky snow to roll upon, the snowball increases exponentially in size. A negative feedback loop on the other hand will either exponentially shrink the effect, have a dampening effect or have it stabilize to a certain level.

Examples of positive feedback loop is that if global temperature increases, it will melt more of the tundra permafrost releasing more methane gasses, and more methane gasses would increase earth's atmospheric temperature, noting that methane gasses are 25 times more effective than carbon dioxide as green house gasses, and this increase in earth's atmospheric temperature will then cause more permafrost melting, which will expoentially proceed until all the permafrost has melted and the methane gas released. By taking this into account, it does not take 100 years for the icebergs to melt away, but perhaps only 20 years.

Increasing atmospheric temperature increases the intensity of wind, rainfall, drought, flood and other long term climatic patterns will have wider dramatic variations. It could increase the intensity of hurricanes and frequency because air would simply have more capacity to carry water, and energy exchange would be more rapid and intensified at higher temperature.

The increase in global temperature have in part, caused more dusts to be blown from the drier and now hotter Sahara desert, that together with the stronger winds, blows the dust far into the Atlantic Ocean which is now hampering the spawning of hurricanes at its early stages. This offers the negative feedback loop that global climate modelers should now enter into their systems of equations. This also indicates that we have to continue to account for many other interrelated factors.

Here's the story:
http://www.livescience.com/environment/061010_dust_hurricanes.html

Interesting Joe, but according to the link 2004 was a year with high dust input-- a year when the negative feedback was supposedly in effect. But that was the year Florida got hit by 4 major storms-- Pensacola got the worst storm in the last 100 years-- Ivan.

True 2005 was worse for some-- but that adds little comfort to most of us that got hit in 2004. I much prefer whatever effect that is controling the formation and path of the storms this year-- which I think is El Nino starting to kick up.

Skeet

here's the verbatim quote:

Quote:

"In 2004, we saw an increase in dust activity and a decrease in hurricanes. In 2005, it was the exact opposite," Evan said in a telephone interview.

I do not disagree with the numbers-- there were clearly more storms in 2005. But depending on where you were on the Gulf Coast, 2004 was a lot worse for many.

I can only recall 2 that hit Florida in 2005, Dennis and Wilma. Dennis was strong but very small and caused much less damage than Ivan (the eye of Dennis passed less that 5 miles from my house the eye of Ivan was over 50 miles away but did far more damage to Pensacola). Wilma was only a catagory 2 but caused a lot of damage to South Florida from reports I saw.

2004 may have been supressed by dust, but it was a bad year.